Mohit Sewak

Identifying Revolutionary MegaTrends

When does a disruptive innovation hits any market?

Thus the major points to look out in an industry are:.

But what should the Market Leader do when he sees a small firm coming up with such disruptive innovative?

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One way or the other, if such an innovation has been made, then it remains only a matter of time before it brings about the demise of the market leader, and such an occurance cannot be prevented.

If the market leader resist such a technology, then although he can delay its propagation, but sooner or later it will reach its destined status. On the other hand, if the market leader himself adopts, and assists the development of such a technology, then it only bring about its end sooner than later. This is because such innovations typically very low margins in the beginning (for a long time). These not only dissolves the high margin atypical to the type of new innovation that the market leader is use to, but also its rate of returns are less that the invested cost of the capital in the firm, thus leading to destruction of the share holder’s wealth, and crash in its share prices, thus finally bringing it to the death bed, sooner than expected. Also in this case the leader will deprive itself of hugs margins that are still due at the higher end where it alone has the capabilities to devolve/ introduce advanced products, and absorb any remaining market value at the high end.

So the ONLY WAY out for the industry leader is to make an entirely ISOLATED firm, and let it assist and adopt this new technology. This new firm will certainly has lower costs, and flexible structure, lower return expectations, and hence it can survive the initial bad times. Later on this company will become as big as, or bigger than the present leader (parent company), then either the two should merge, or the leader be allowed to die its natural death, and the daughter company be allowed to become the NEW INDUSTRY LEADER.

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Gone are the days when the changing of dresses, foot-wears, watches, and accessories could be called fashion, and by renewing/ updating them regularly you could be christened as the most happening upmarket girl/ brat. Today’s (and predominantly tomorrow’s) World, would be very authenticity conscious, and changing anything that doesn’t belongs to you (permanently belonging to you since birth), would not qualify as  a “fashion statement”.

So if being “Natural” is the way to go, try changing your body if you want to be fashionable. And by the time that we discover how to transfer our soul, brain and heart simultaneously from one body to another, why not try disfiguring/ re-figuring our body a bit?

U think that’s CRAZZZZZZYYYYYY!!!!!, Why…?

Come on…! Such oldies, contemporary people like you, said the same thing when some people told them that disfiguring of denim could be fashion. Didn’t they? But did they ever realized that the same brand, same material denim disfigured jeans will sell at a markup of 2-3 times its authentic casual version in the name of “fashion wear” just a couple of years down the line?

And if you are talking to use pain as an excuse to run away, then let me ask you that why pain didn’t bothered you decades (or even centuries) back, when you started getting your ears pierced, or biceps tattooed, when the potency and efficacy of pain killers we had was simply miniscule to what we will have in the future (or even have now)? And if you don’t have a logical answer to this question, then should i offer you to find a better excuse to disparage the oncoming fashion of tomorrow?

So, are you ready to adopt the changing fashion MEGA trends, or want to lose the race, you OLDIE…!

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Android, the latest Operating System for Mobiles from Google is going to be the next big thing in the world of technology and communication. there are many reasons for me to believe so, but before discussing these reasons, first let us understand the evolution of mobile OS market in brief.

For years altogether no one ever realized that there exists any Operating system (OS) in mobiles also. OS were supposed to power high end computing systems like computers, mainframes, or similar machines. But the truth is that leave aside processors, even any microprocessor requires an operating system to work/ interact with its users. Even small microprocessor chips like those fitted in your semi automatic washing machines (today’s washing machines use the same 808CX family microprocessors, whose predecessors were the IBMs 3086, and 4086 family computers) run on an operating system, through which they interact with you and other devices they need to obtain information from, or pass commands to. Apart from the necessary bus bars, and other hardware pituitary, some software is anyway necessary to make devices work. But the reason why a common end user does not realize that there exists any OS in them is simply because so far these devices use legacy proprietary OS of their parent company, which have no market outside these devices, so are never popularized.

It was only after the success of Symbian based mobile phones that people realized that alike a computer, a mobile can also have a hardware and an OS as two separate entities, and they are not bound to the proprietary OS. Also, the world of third party applications and games started evolving rapidly with this concept of standalone mobile OS (Although Java supporting mobiles go a long way starting this market of 3rd party applications, but the power of such applications were limited, as java was only a run time environment for them, not a full featured OS).

Although Symbian was not the first such mobile OS to be offered for multibrand mobiles(Linux and many others were sitting on multi brand mobiles earlier as well), but the credit of opening this market goes to it.  Some of the leading Mobile OS brands today, with their market shares are:

1. Symbian  46.6%
2. Apple (iPhone OS) 17.3%
3. RIM (Reach in Motion) 15.3%
4. Microsoft (Windows Mobile OS) 13.5%
5. Others including Palm OS, Qualcomm’s BREW, Google Android, SavaJe, Linux and MontaVista Software makes up for the remaining market share.

Android is an open source Mobile OS, running on Linux Kernel. Applications and codes can be written for it in managed Java, using Google developed Java Libraries. Although the OS was earlier made by Google, but is now supported by “Open Handset Alliamce”, a consortium of some 50 hardware, software, and telecom makers, who support in open source technologies.

The OS supports a myriad of latest media formats, has 3D graphics based on OpenGL 1.0 specification, use SQLite for database storage, has advanced connectivity and development environment base. But the best part is its native support for “Multi-Touch” Technology. Unlike other OS, in which touch is a scaled up feature, Android’s native input method is multi-touvh, which means that the entire OS, all its libraries, and supporting applications, are all made keeping the touch interface in  mind right from the very beginning of the conceptualizationn phase.

Moreover the OS is made to seamlessly couple with Google’s Chrome OS, which again has a very good multi touch interface. The two are bound to make a deadly couple and threatening their respective device’s OS market.

Currently there has been 18 mobiles launched with Android OS (current version being Eclair 2.0) including the much hyped HTC Dream, and Samsung i7500 handsets.

Android, like other Google open source products, is expected to change the mobile OS game altogether.

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Use of Spatial Technology for powering Future Connectivity

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Internet connectivity has always been a major factor in changing the economic, business and cultural landscapes around the world. Therefore any significant development on this front, definitely qualifies to be called a Mega-trend for the future.

Because of the internet connectivity bandwith going northwards, and costs going southwards, English speaking developing countries like India gained major chunk of outsourced business from the business world. We thought that only manufacturing processes could be outsourced because in case of manufacturing the place where the product is purchased, and where it is consumed need not be same. But in case of services, as it is consumed the miment it was produced, there was a notion that it will take a loibg time for the services to be outsourced.

But as always we were proved wrong. Even in case of services, despite it is consumed miles away from the place it is produced, it can lead to the same level of customer satisfaction. Infact because of the lower cost, (which can be used to improve quality as well), it leads to greater customer satisfaction, and hence the trend evolved that services became more succeptible to outsourcing than manufacturing.

To bring about this change is the rising speed of different medium of connectivity. Please find below the speeds of some of the mediums, and their respective uses today:

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The only hinderence to this trend has been the high cost of laying such optical fiber network under sea for intercontinent connectivity.

But even that has been overcomed now as can be seen in the video above. With Free Space Optics (using laser optic technologogy), data can directly be transmitted (and received), through satellite transponders in space, which reflecs them back to the receiving (or transmitting) satellites located in another part of the world. Current speeds reached with this tecthnology is around a gigabyte per second, and is increasing.

Moreover, as also shown in the video, it can be controlled via miniature computing devices of the size of a pen, or a scrapbook, and can be commanded remotely by handwritten notes on a scrapbook (mini computing devices).

Coupled with advance space imagery, which will become affordable to be used by every normal consumer, it will throe the gates open for new industries, new softwares, and new riding technologies. People still think that Google Earth has been a big breakthrough in bringing satellite imagery to the common consumer. But it can be find histrocally that a megatrend emerges only when the consumer satrts completely controlling the technology.

In case of space optics, coupled with satellite imagery, the platform is ready for such an occurrence. Imagine the exuberance of a person (sitting in his study in Alaska) who can take snaps of his friend mountaineering on some peaks of K2 (the highest mountain peak ), just by a click of a mouse, and send them(and the whole world) back in real time. So that by the time they reach the peak, all world will be seeing their live video on youtube……. amazing!!!

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